Grants (2001-2003)

Improving Meteorological Forecasting Practice with Knowledge Management Systems

Research Aims
This research aims to improve meteorological services through the application of knowledge management to the forecast process. In particular the project seeks to develop a comprehensive knowledge management framework which includes models of forecasters' explicit, tacit and experiential knowledge and which enables forecasters to learn from their collective experience.

Project Overview
Twenty-first century weather forecasting presents a number of challenges.

Meteorologists need to:

• assess a vast amount of data under strict time constraints,
• incorporate predictive numerical modelling and their collective experiential knowledge into the forecast process
• learn from the forecast process, and
  meet increasing user demand within limited resources.
  
• This project seeks to help forecasters meet these challenges by changing the information technology paradigm which has traditionally underpinned meteorology from one exclusively comprised of predictive numerical models to one which incorporates the knowledge and experience of forecasters.

The collaboration between Monash and the Bureau has already led to the definition of the Mandala concept. Applied to forecasting, this concept:

• P rovides a model to reconceptualise the forecast process where the major functions are monitor, predict, produce and learn,
  
• M odels the meteorologist's view of the process, in the form of viewing, editing, producing and verifying,
  
• R epresents the integration of the production of a forecast with an understanding of the reasoning behind it, and represents learning loops at individual, group and organisational levels.
  
• A goal of this project is to further develop the Mandala concept to the point where it can be used as practical design parameters for operational systems.

Status
This three year project is just commencing. However the research builds on a longstanding and very successful collaboration between the Bureau and Monash. This partnership has already led to the definition of the Mandala concept, described above, along with a number of postdoctoral, PhD, Masters and undergraduate student projects in the area of knowledge management for meteorological forecasting.

- List of our achievements